World-modeling Other Resources

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Core Readings

Why Model the World

  • "World Modeling." Link 3pp. 5 min

Magic. Brief overview of world-modeling, how and why organisms do it, how humans might do it better.

Systems Thinking

  • Wikipedia. "Systems Thinking" Link 1pp. 2 min

Description of systems approach with reference to its relatively recent inception. Reading first 5 paragraphs is sufficient.

Exponential Growth

  • Martenson, Chris. "Exponential Growth." Video segment from 8:12 to 10:12. Link 2 min

Illustration of exponential growth.

Complexity

  • Wikipedia. "Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies." Link 2pp. 2 min
  • "Complexity is generally understood to refer to such things as the size of a society, the number and distinctiveness of its parts, the variety of specialized social roles that it incorporates, the number of distinct social personalities present, and the variety of mechanisms for organizing these into a coherent, functioning whole. Augmenting any of these dimensions increases the complexity of a society. Hunter-gatherer societies (by way of illustrating one contrast in complexity) contain no more than a few dozen distinct social personalities, while modern European censuses recognize 10,000 to 20,000 unique occupational roles, and industrial societies may contain overall more than 1,000,000 different kinds of social personalities (McGuire 1983; Tainter 1988). 1"
    • This quote is from a 1996 paper Link by Joseph Tainter in which he argues that energy underpins capacity for adaptation by means of more complex responses, that such responses give rise to more complex problems, and that this cycle eventually runs afoul of energy input limits and leads to collapse. Tainter's argument is akin to Wilson's "ratchet of progress." 5 min
  • Ophuls, William. (2013). "Sustainability and Complexity: Are We Doomed to Repeat History?" CSR Wire. Link 5 min

Ophuls asserts that humans solve problems by increasing complexity, which at some point becomes unmanageable and unsustainable.

Overshoot

  • Catton, William. "The Unfathomed Predicament of Mankind." Overshoot. Link 20 min

Writing more than thirty years ago Catton outlines difficulties which have since become more evident and traces their roots in natural systems laws and psychology.

  • Wikipedia. "Overshoot." Link 5 min (read the first few paragraphs and whatever else you find of interest.)

Brief introduction to concept of overshoot and its applicability to humans.

Ecological Footprint

Introduction to concept of ecological footprint. Take a few minutes to view the footprints of a handful of countries in which you are interested.

Synthesis: Limits to Growth

  • Meadows, Donella H.; Meadows, Dennis L.; Randers, Jorgen; Behrens, William W. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. Full book Limits to Growth. Figures 32-48 on pages 132-169 show outputs of model under various assumptions. Figures 47 & 48 show predicted effect of delay in implementing policies: unsustainability. link to view PDF 20 min - look at figures and read captions; read other text as desired.
  • Strauss, Mark. (2012). "Looking Back on the Limits of Growth." Smithsonian Magazine. Link 5 min

Single chart showing reality confirms Limits model from 1972-2000 and showing projections to 2100.

  • Bardi, Ugo. (2011). Author's Commentary on "The Limits to Growth Revisited." Resilience. Link 5 min

Ugo Bardi reminds us that 40 years later the projections in the Limits to Growth remain valid.

Interest Readings

  • "Industrialization, Prelude to Collapse" from Overshoot by William Catton. Link 20 min

Catton discusses in detail carrying capacity and overshoot, explaining how we've temporarily expanded population and throughput by expanding and complicating matter-energy conversion in ways that we can sustain for at most decades more, and then only at expense of diminishing opportunity for us and for those who follow. I find his analysis sound and sobering.

  • Jorgen Randers interview in which he describes his book 2052 and talks about his prior book Limits to Growth. Link 10 min

Randers says we've blown it.

  • UK futurist consultancy lays out scenarios for 2025 and 2040. Link 10-100 min
  • A new Club of Rome report guided by one of the authors of Limits. Link 10-100 min

Jorgen Randers, offers a variety of scenarios for the next 40 years. '

  • Tainter, Joseph. "Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies." 1996. Link (This is the full paper to which the Wikipedia article in Core Readings refers.) 20 min

Tainter argues that we are addicted to complexity, that diminishing returns are available by this strategy, and that we are unlikely to avoid collapse.

  • Simmons, Matthew. (2000). "Revisiting 'The Limits to Growth': Could the Club of Rome Have Been Correct, After All?" Link 20-30 min

Simmons reviews the lasting controversy stimulated by "Limits," confirms the soundness of the authors' analysis, and warns that the future will be grim. Simmons includes lots of graphs depicting hard data on energy and economic growth.

  • Bardi, Ugo. "Tainter's Law: Where is the Physics?" Link 15 min

A physicist analyzes Tainter's collapse theory from a thermodynamic perspective and shows it to be consistent with the laws of thermodynamics.

  • Brown, Lester. "Global Ponzi Scheme." Energy Reality Essays. Post Carbon Institute. Link 5pp., 5 min
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